JEBAKAN POPULIS POLITIK BBM
Oleh : Putu Suasta, Alumnus UGM dan Cornell University
Di tengah kenaikan harga bahan bakar minyak (BBM) dan gas yang salah satunya dipicu oleh perang Ukraina-Rusia, pemerintah kembali dihadapkan pada 2 pilihan sulit. Pilihan pertama, menaikkan harga BBM sesuai dengan kenaikan ICP (Indonesian crude price) yang mengikuti tren harga global. Pilihan kedua, mempertahankan harga dengan menaikkan subsidi.
Taruhan pilihan pertama adalah citra pemerintah. Dalam politik citra adalah segalanya. Menaikkan harga BBM dan gas sungguh tidak populis dan selalu berada dalam daftar pilihan paling akhir sekalipun langkah itu penting demi kesehatan anggaran, demi kelancaran berbagai program pembangunan dan demi efektifitas subsidi serta berbagai bantuan lainnya.
Pilihan kedua selalu menjadi primadona sekalipun akan memberi beban maha berat pada anggaran. Kalaupun pemerintah menaikkan BBM, subsidi pasti tetap dipertahankan bahkan diperbesar untuk menekan angka kenaikan tidak tinggi.
Efektifitas Subsidi Lebih penting dari kesehatan anggaran, penggunaan subsidi secara tepat sasaran sesungguhnya harus menjadi pertimbangan terpenting. Berbagai kajian telah menunjukkan bahwa subsidi BBM merupakan bentuk pemborosan terbesar negara karena tidak mampu menyasar lapisan terbawah masyarakat miskin Indonesia. Pengguna terbesar BBM hasil subsidi adalah pemilik kendaraan pribadi.
Kita bisa berdebat bahwa tidak semua pemilik kendaraan pribadi berstatus orang kaya. Tapi jika masyarakat Indonesia kita klasifikasikan mulaia dari lapisan terbawah hingga ke lapisan terkaya, para pemilik kendaraan pribadi pasti tidak berada dalam lapisan terbawah. Bukankah lapisan terbawah ini mesti menjadi prioritas terutama dalam penggunaan anggaran besar negara?
Kemenkeu sendiri mengakui 40 % dari subsidi BBM dinikmati masyarakat dari lapisan terkaya (kompas.com, 26/06/20). Maka kalau kita mengikuti prinsip pembangunan tepat sasaran, subsidi BBM mestinya dihilangkan dan dialihkan ke subsidi lain yang berdampak langsung pada masyarakat lapisan terbawah. Di antaranya adalah menaikkan bantuan langsung orang per orang, memperbesar sunsidi bunga kredit pelaku usaha mikro, subsidi pupuk petani miskin, subsidi harga pakan bagi peternak kecil dan berbagai kebijakan-kebijakan lain yang dapat menjangkau masyarakat bawah secara lebih tepat sasaran.
Sakali lagi, mencabut subsidi pastilah langkah yang sangat berat bagi politisi karena pertaruhan politiknya sangat besar. Terutama kalau dipertimbankan bahwa kelas menengah (penikmat terbesar subsidi BBM) merupakan kelas paling berisik dalam politik Indonesia. Maka hampir mustahil langkah ini diambil pemerintah.
Pendewasaan Politik Sebagai perbandingan, selama pemerintah Presiden Jokowi yang dicitrakan sebagai pemimpin bernyali hanya sekali terjadi pencabutan subsidi BMM yakni tahun 2015. Itupun dilakukan di tengah penurunan harga minyal global sehingga ICP sangat rendah. Maka tanpa subsidipun harga BBM di tingkat konsumen sesungguhnya akan tetap rendah. Tapi kesempatan itu tetap digunaan untuk memoles citra pemerintah dengan narasi pencabutan subsidi BBM untuk membiayai aneka pembangunan infrastruktur yang lebih dibutuhkan masyarakat miskin. Beberapa waktu kemudian, ketika harga minyak global merangkak naik, subsidi tetap digelontorkan kendati tanpa gembar-gembor.
Dari sini semakin jelas betapa seksinya BBM untuk memoles citra politik pemerintah. Tetapi jika godaan populis ini terus diikuti, akan membentuk gunung es beban anggaran yang sewaktu-waktu dapat meledak dan akhirnya mengganggu berbagai program lain yang sangat vital bagi masyarakat miskin. Pemborosan anggaran besar-besaran demi citra politik merupakan jebakan yang membahayakan masa depan pembangunan Indonesia.
Di masa akhir jabatan Jokowi ini sesungguhnya muncul berbagai harapan untuk memberikan pendidikan politik lebih dewasa bagi masyarakat. Pencabutan subsidi BBM merupakan bentuk pendidikan politik yang mendewasakan. Masyarakat dapat dididik untuk lebih mengandalkan kendaraan umum dengan catatan sebagian hasil pencabutan subsidi digunakan untuk memperbaiki kendaraan umum dan mensubsidinya sehingga tarif angkutan umum dapat ditekan semurah mungkin. Demikian juga dengan subsidi pada sektor logistik untuk mengantisipasi kenaikan-kenaikan harga barang akibat fluktuasi harga BBM. Pengelolaan anggaran seperti ini, ditambah dengan berbagai program bagi orang miskin yang lebih tepat sasaran, tidak saja akan menyehatkan anggaran, tetapi juga akan mendewasan masyarakat secara politik.
Energi Alternatif Pencabutan subsidi BBM juga akan memberi ruang anggaran lebih leluasa bagi pemerintah untuk mempercepat pembangunan infrastruktur dan fasilitas pendukung penggunaan energi alternatif yang tidak bersumber dari fosil. Pengembangan teknologi energi surya sebagai sumber listrik untuk menggantikan peran BBM bagi kendaraan, mesin dan berbagai peralatan produksi lainnya akan mempermudah Indonesia menyukseskan program emisi karbon nol persen yang kini tengah menjadi perhatian besar negara-negara di dunia.
Selain ramah lingkungan, energi alternatif juga akan mengurangi volatilitas ekonomi Indonesia akibat fluktuasi harga BBM global. Instabilitas harga BBM global selama ini sering menjadi pemicu inflasi. Gejolak harga minyak akibat perang Ukraina-Rusia jika tidak ditangani dengan tepat, menurut analisis para ahli, dapat menyebabkan inflasi hingga 3 %. Hal ini dapat dipahami mengingat tingginya ketergantungan Indonesia pada pasokan BBM dunia.
Menurut data SKK Migas, produksi minyak mentah Indonesia hanya 700 ribu barel per hari (bph). Sementara konsumsi minyak Indonesia lebih dari 1,4juta bph. Dengan kata lain, tiap hari Indonesia mesti mengimpor minyak minimal 700 ribu barel. Kondisi ini membuat harga minyak global berpengaruh sangat signifikan pada stabilitas ekonomi Indonesia. Karena itu sudah saatnya mempercepat penggunaan energi alternatif secara lebih luas. Tapi itu hanya mungkin terealisasi jika penguasa berhasil keluar dari jebakan populis politik BBM yang telah berlangsung selama puluhan tahun.
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